Atlas Unfolded: Tieg Thomas on Global Affairs

The inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20th promised to be interesting. His return to office will be a major disruption to international systems with the threats of tariffs and a change in American foreign policy with acquisition of territory such as Greenland and Panama Canal. Another Trump presidency will be a test on America’s standing in the world.

The world has seen a rise in conflicts and instability since Trump was last in office.  With the Conflict in Ukraine, Fall of Assad regime in Syria and the reduction in democracies in the world. His recent opinions of Greenland and Panama Canal acquisition has shown that he does not plan to bring stability under his presidency but advance the America first directive potentially pushing its borders further. Trump’s push to expand is concerning, with him even stating to politico that he will not remove the potential for military force in order to gain these territories. “I’m not gonna commit to that. No. It might be that you’ll have to do something.”(Starcevic, 2025).  The basis for his argument for wanting to gain these areas is economic security and security in general. This of course has strained relations with Denmark in which Greenland is an autonomous dependent territory.  As well as Panama in which the canal is  a major source of income for the country with it contributing to 3.5% of GDP in 2020(World Trade Organisation, 2021). These comments have also come alongside traditional gibes about a possible annexation of Canada to become the “51st state”. Trump’s push for this policy is interesting as both of these countries have close relations with the US. Denmark is a NATO ally along with Canada and Panama has been closely aligned with the US, even being stated by the U.S. Department of State (2025) “Given Panama’s location and role in global trade, its success is vital to U.S. prosperity and national security.” . So why is Trump focusing his attention on these areas? And what makes them significant.

Greenland is the largest island in the world but with a population of little over 56,000 people. Earning it the title for the least densely populated area in the world. Around 20,000 or 35% of the population lives in the capital Nuuk (ESA, 2024). Whilst the population of Greenland would mark a small increase in revenue through taxation for the US, interest in the area is due to the effects of climate change. With the world temperature reaching an yearly average of plus 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2024. Climate change is going to have a profound impact on the future and the degree of its potential is still unknown as temperatures continue to rise. Greenland sits within the Arctic Circle and more specifically is surrounded in the north by the Arctic Ocean. This Ocean is likely to become a key trading route for the future due to low levels of sea ice in the area. Trade time from East Asia to the west could be significantly reduced with passage across the Arctic Ocean. This area will likely become of strategic geopolitical importance for numerous states including the US with millions of dollars of international trade passing through the region. (DeRepentigny et al., 2020)

This map showcasing the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the countries that border the region. The fact that the US (Dark Blue) has such little direct control compared to countries such as Canada (Purple) and Russia (Blue) it is understandable that they would want to increase their territories in the area. Competition with countries such as Russia in this region means the US is on the back foot due to it being limited to the EEZ of Alaska, the only U.S. state that is within this region. US acquisition of Greenland (Yellow) would improve its position and control. Greenland not only is likely to be beneficial due to the potential of future trade routes but also the fact that it is likely to have oil reserves and wealth of valuable minerals beneath the surface much of this unexplored due to its ice sheets and technology and effort required to extract. Recently, oil exploration in Greenland has been halted by the government after 50 years of exploration (Reuters, 2021).  Climate change has the potential overtime to allow for easier access to Greenland mineral wealth with the reduction in its ice sheets. These deposits of oil or minerals could be a key resource for the U.S. may encourage Trump’s plan into action. This does create issues within NATO with its Article 5 being thrown into turmoil if a NATO state invades another. Denmark has however, clearly stated that it would only relinquish Greenland to the U.S. if the Greenlandic people wanted to and would not accept being bullied into handing over the self governing territory.

The influence that maritime trade has upon the world cannot be understated with many geo-strategic choke points being based on the effect that they could have on shipping. The Panama Canal is a highly important asset to world trade allowing for shipping to avoid the long journey around the bottom tip of South America to reach their destination. The canal allows for both reduction in time and cost for these companies and is vital for the US to transport from one seaboard to another. Originally a project under French control, this later gave way to an American attempt. The harsh conditions of the area made the project a nightmare for workers but was completed in 1914 allowing ships to avoid the infamous drake passage and reduce travel from the Atlantic to the Pacific (U.S. Office of the Historian, 2025).  The canal is key to American policy with the dimensions of the canal often influencing Naval ship design allowing for the U.S. Navy to potentially use it in the case of a conflict. The high revenue that Panama receives would also be beneficial to the U.S. with 5% of all maritime trade passing through the canal each year. Trump’s assertion of retaking the canal is based on “Chinese influence” on the canal. This hasn’t been verified however China’s investment in Panama and infrastructure such as ports on both canal entrances.Panama was also the first of the Latin American states to join the Chinese Belt road initiative and dissolved diplomatic relations with Taiwan in order to align more closely to China (Yuan, 2025). These actions do not directly showcase that China has influence over the canal but worries are being voiced outside of the president’s own circle. The U.S. when relinquishing control of the canal to Panama they signed two treaties however, the first is important as it is apart of the Trump’s reasoning for his wish to reclaim the canal “Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal, or the Neutrality Treaty, stated that the United States could use its military to defend the Panama Canal against any threat to its neutrality, thus allowing perpetual U.S. usage of the Canal.”(Milestones in the History of U.S. Foreign Relations – Office of the Historian, 2025). Trump’s argument that the canal is no longer neutral therefore, intervention may need to occur. The delicate relationship that the U.S. has with South and Central America could be on the balance depending on his actions regarding the canal. If he was to enforce this aspect of the treaty he could find himself facing a variety of challenges.

Trump remarks have not yet came to fruition however, they themselves are setting an interesting precedent that this is a different U.S. The threats towards allies showcases a potential long term change in U.S. relations with the world. This could be beneficial to the U.S. however, it is beginning to degrade the international institutions that the U.S. has created and supported since 1945. Could these actions actually harm the U.S. and help China rise as a more reliable global leader? We won’t know the long term effects of this rhetoric but it does mark something new in international affairs.